Voorspellingen van Gartner

Logotype Gartner Zo af en toe krijg ik een gratis rapport via Gartner, en heel soms staat er iets in wat van waarde is. Dat geldt bijvoorbeeld voor het rapport: Gartner Top End User Predictions for 2010: Coping with the New Balance of Power.

Hier geeft Gartner een serie voorspellingen voor de korte termijn waarvan ik er twee heb overgenomen ter lering ende vermaak. Zonder bespiegelingen van mijn kant. Ook wel eens lekker…

By 2012, Facebook will become the hub for social networks integration and Web socialization
The number of active users on Facebook—already the largest social network community—is expected to rocket to more than a billion by the end of 2010.

More than 15,000 websites, devices and applications have implemented the Facebook Connect APIs and protocols to interface with Facebook. This interoperability will become critical to the success and survival of other social
networks, communication channels and media sites.

Facebook is simply too big for firms not to factor it into their B2C strategies. Its potential for advertising, communication, marketing and client support is huge.

That said, there are two aspects of the Facebook phenomenon that organization should track carefully. They include:

  • Privacy issues, which will only get thornier as Facebook’s role in integration with other websites and networks increases
  • The possible disruptive influence from the Far East, specifically QQ in China, which could outstrip Facebook should the Chinese government allow it to compete on the open market

By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide
The total number of PCs in use will reach 1.62 billion units in 2012, all of which are capable of Internet access, even if some are not connected.

By 2012, the combined installed base of smartphones and browser-equipped enhanced phones will exceed 1.69 billion units. From 2012 onwards, this combined installed base will be greater than the installed base for PCs.

Nevertheless, most users in 2012 will use a PC as their primary Web access device and their phone as a secondary access device. However, as use of smartphones spreads globally, they will overtake the PC as the most common primary device for Web access sometime in 2015

This shift means that many websites will need to be reformatted or rebuilt. Mobile device users typically make many fewer “clicks” on a website than PC users, and websites not optimized for smaller screen formats will risk reduced customer interaction and fewer transactions.

By 2015, context will be as influential to mobile consumer services and relationships as search engines are to the Web
Context-aware computing will have a transformation, disruptive effect on business—particularly for retailers, financial services, media, healthcare, and telecom firms

The most powerful position in the context business model will be the context provider. We expect firms like Google, Nokia, Apple, Microsoft, and communication service providers to lead the way in
creating these services, platforms and business ecosystems.

Aangezien ik ook niet wist wat Gartner met context-aware computing bedoelde, heb ik het even opgezocht:

Gartner defines context-aware computing as the concept of leveraging information about the end user to improve the quality of the interaction. Emerging context-enriched services will use location, presence, social attributes, and other environmental information to anticipate an end user’s immediate needs, offering more-sophisticated, situation-aware and usable functions.

Oftewel, personalisatie op basis van kenmerken van de gebruiker in combinatie met zijn/haar huidige locatie, eventuele voorafgaande online acties en al het andere wat privacy watchdogs zal doen sidderen van angst.

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