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Vandaag presenteerde Randstad de cijfers. Ja, het bedrijf verloor 26 procent van zijn omzet. En ja, ook het laatste kwartaal kromp Randstad. Maar het goede nieuws is: topman Ben Noteboom constateert steeds meer groei. Dat wil zeggen: harde omzetgroei.

De Randstad-top is dan ook licht optimistisch. Zo had topman Ben Noteboom boven zijn persbericht ‘klassiek herstelpatroon’ geplaatst. Sinds het vierde kwartaal signaleert het bedrijf in sommige industriële segmenten en blauweboordenmarkten een voorzichtige groei. Niet genoeg om weer winstverwachtingen uit te spreken, maar, zo stelt een optimistische Noteboom: ‘Ik verwacht geen dubbele dip.’

Today Randstad presented the numbers. Yes, the company lost 26 percent of its revenue. And yes, also in the last quarter Randstad shrunk. But the good news is: executive officer Ben Noteboom sees more and more growth. This means: actual revenue growth.

The Randstad directors are then slightly optimistic. For example chief Ben Noteboom had put ‘classic recovery pattern’ above his press announcement. Since the fourth quarter the company is noticing growth in some industrial segments and a slight growth in the blue collar markets. Not enough to pronounce profit expectations again, but, so states an optimistic Noteboom: ‘I don’t expect a double dip.’

A year after the hit
It’s not that crazy that after Manpower and Kelly Services, Randstad also reports a much more optimistic revenue dip than with their previous quarter presentation. After all, during the fourth quarter of 2008 all temp agencies went steeply downhill. That dive didn’t repeat itself in 2009 and those who put the decline of Q3 (-28%) next to that of Q4 (-19%) could easily get the impression that the crisis is already over. But that’s not really the case.

That growth is not yet visible in the consolidated numbers, but Randstad is already showing signs of a recovery. In the press announcement, the company names the American daughter, which ‘for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2006’ was growing again. And this morning financial director Robert Jan van de Kraats added that Randstad only shrank 1% in France in January compared to a year earlier. And there are more bright dots like this. We talked about them with Noteboom.

Q&A Ben Noteboom, CEO Randstad
Where else did you find growth?
‘Especially with our industrial clients in Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Belgium the demand is growing again. This is mainly in regard to blue collar professions.’

You are talking about revenue growth?
‘Yes. The same we’ve seen since October 2009 in the United States. Furthermore we foresee growth in China, India, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Hungary, Turkey, Greece.’

When did you see this growth for the first time?
‘We noticed this during the fourth quarter.’

And what are you expecting for the upcoming year?
‘We’re not communicating revenue expectations. But I don’t expect a double dip in the economy. And the regular pattern is that after the recovery of the industrial demand, the administrative jobs and eventually the professional ones follow.’

What for you is the moment to start hiring new intermediaries again?
‘First we have 30% overcapacity. This means that we have sufficient personnel on the payroll to deal with 30% more revenue, without hiring any new people. This is an ideal percentage for the whole company -we are not going to experience the same growth at the same time everywhere. That’s why we have a ‘recovery ratio’ of 50%. This means that for every euro we add to the gross margin, we first add 50 euro cents to the profit. This is possible when you have overcapacity. So, if we can bring about half of that margin soon, things are going good.

Do you expect at the end of the year to have more people on the payroll then your current 25,500 employers?
‘If we are doing well, yes. If we get another hit it’s unlikely.

When does Randstad reach the bottom of what can be cut back?
‘When I turn out the lights here and close the building. No, seriously -depending on the seriousness of the situation it is always possible to shrink. At a certain moment it means that you need to leave markets: countries, segments or places. That happened in a couple of cases.
In Holland for example we have closed establishments in many small places, or placed them on hold. But if you do that in too many places, you also loose the capacity to quickly grow again. That’s why we want to be big everywhere and hold a large share of the market. Especially then we can shrink easily without having to leave those countries and we can grow quickly again when the economy speeds up again.’ (meer…)

Vanaf morgenochtend 7 uur weten we hoe Randstad het afgelopen jaar uit is gekomen. Aan winstverwachtingen doet het bedrijf sinds de crisis niet meer. Maar gelukkig zijn er analisten. Die verwachten een omzet in het vierde kwartaal van EUR 3,218 miljard; 18,7% lager dan hetzelfde kwartaal een jaar eerder. Daarmee zou de jaaromzet uitkomen op ruim EUR 12,4 miljard – genoeg om concurrent Manpower in euro’s voor te blijven.

En daarmee komt een eind aan een anderhalf jaar durende verwarring. Wie de jaaromzet van Randstad wilde weten, moest de omzetten van Randstad en Vedior optellen en kwam dan uit op EUR 17,6 miljard in 2007 – een geheel onrealistisch getal.

(meer…)